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Preface Acknowledgements General introduction Aurélie Wilfart, Sandrine Espagnol, Mathieu Vigne, Olivier Mora and Jonathan Vayssières Part 1. Foresight studies and changes in livestock farming within territories Chapter 1. Foresight and questions surrounding livestock farming Olivier Mora and Audrey Béthinger Introduction to foresight approaches Role of foresight analysis and scenarios in addressing uncertainty and complexity The challenge of livestock farming in global foresight scenarios Diverse ways of approaching the future of livestock farming Chapter 2. Agriculture in Brittany in 2040: an exploratory foresight study in the region of Brittany Maud Marguet The start of the project Baseline studies prior to constructing a foresight system Building foresight systems Conclusion Chapter 3. Towards peaceful transhumance at the border between Togo and Burkina Faso. A territorial and anticipatory approach Jean-Michel Sourisseau and Véronique Ancey Study background and objectives General approach Outcomes and lessons learned Perspectives Conclusions Chapter 4. Transition(s) 2050, prospective modelling of the French agricultural and food sectors Antoine Pierart Introduction Methodology Limitations and outlooks Coupling «foresight and assessment» Conclusion Chapter 5. The importance of livestock farming and animal products in the Agrimonde-Terra foresight project on land use and global food security in 2050 Olivier Mora and Chantal Le Mouël The Agrimonde-Terra method: combination of a scenario method and digital simulation approach Land use and global food security scenarios and their quantified impacts Future challenges of livestock production for food and nutrition security Limitations of livestock quantification in Agrimonde-Terra scenarios Conclusion Part 2. The inclusion of modelling and scenario assessments in foresight approaches Chapter 6. Introduction to scenario modelling and assessments Jonathan Vayssières, Mathieu Vigne and Aurélie Wilfart Why do scenarios from foresight studies need to be modelled and assessed? An introduction to modelling and assessment approaches Four studies illustrating the diversity of modelling-assessment methods and their use in foresight studies Chapter 7. Use of the MAELIA platform to perform an integrated assessment and modelling of agricultural systems and farmlands within a foresight approach Olivier Therond From sustainability issues to integrated approaches Yes, there needs to be integration, but of what? An integrated modelling approach to territories MAELIA, an integrated assessment and modelling platform for agricultural systems and farmlands MAELIA, supporting dynamics in several application areas MAELIA, streamlining research and supporting agriculture and bioeconomy actors Specific features of the MAELIA platform Maelia to support territorial foresight approaches Chapter 8. Assessing the multifunctionality of livestock grazing systems within territories: examples from the Sahel and South-East Asia Alexandre Ickowicz, Mélanie Blanchard, Vincent Blanfort, Jean Daniel Cesaro, Christian Corniaux, Arona Diaw, Bernard Hubert, Jacques Lasseur, Huyen Le Thi Thanh, Jean-Pierre Müller, Liz Wedderburn Introduction Why apply a multifunctionality concept to livestock grazing systems Building a multifunctional conceptual model to support the dynamics of local livestock grazing systems Case studies using a multifunctionality approach to livestock farming in Vietnam and Senegal Transversal multifunctionality analysis Conclusion Chapter 9. Afterres 2050: from creating scenarios to assessing them Christian Couturier History and objectives of the Afterres 2050 scenario Foundations of the approach Exploring the Afterres 2050 scenario Targets Chapter 10. An agroecological Europe in 2050, «Ten Years For Agroecology» (TYFA) scenario Pierre-Marie Aubert and Xavier Poux Introduction TYFA scenario assumptions Results Discussion Conclusion: reviewing the role of permanent grasslands and ruminants in the sustainability agenda Part 3. Transversal analysis of foresight exercises and scenario modelling-assessment Chapter 11. Analysis frameworks for coupling approaches to better combine foresight and assessment Mathieu Vigne and Jonathan Vayssières Why use a framework to help choose the type of coupling? Assessments play various roles in the coupling process The choice of coupling type is based on data availability From an analysis framework to a typology for coupling frameworks Conclusion and outlook Chapter 12. Components of agri-food systems and variables in foresight scenarios Aurélie Wilfart, Olivier Mora and Sandrine Espagnol Assumptions and background data for foresight scenarios Foresight scenario assessment methods Chapter 13. Possible futures for livestock farming and ownership by policy makers Aurélie Wilfart, Olivier Mora and Sandrine Espagnol Introduction: the role of foresight studies in the public policy cycle Livestock farming at the centre of numerous French government departments The main political actions concerning livestock farming in France How are foresight studies used in French public policy? What about in other contexts elsewhere in the world? General conclusion. Key points to remember Jonathan Vayssières and Aurélie Wilfart Thematic summary Methodological summary Functional summary Bibliographic references Abbreviations and units List of authors

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